By Sandra Pate
While we cannot argue that many people will, unfortunately, suffer job losses and bankruptcies in the coming months, we are still in a far better position today than we were during our last two market downturns. In the peak of 1989/90 prime had risen as high as 14.75%, with mortgage rates starting at about 15%. The average house price peaked at $273,698 and a mortgage in the amount of $100K cost us $1280.83 per month.
Going further back to the challenges of 1981, few people were willing to buy a home as they watched prime rise from 13.75% in November 1980 to peak in August 1981 at 22.75%! Payments at that time were $1902.63 for that same $100K! Of course, house prices were much lower – but so were household incomes.
Despite the low prices, the market was flooded with properties for sale, as ordinary homeowners were confronted with having to renew their mortgages and face monthly payments more than double what they had budgeted for. Some people tried, but it was nearly impossible even to give away a house.
Now we enjoy a 3% prime rate, and mortgage money as cheap as 4.0% (or less). Our average price is only slightly higher than it was at the peak of 1989, now sitting at $335,000. The cost to carry $100K @4% is a mere $527.84 per month. With real estate values approximately 11% lower than they were at our most recent peak, and great interest rates, many savvy buyers are figuring out that this is a terrific time to buy.
I hear the same comments over and over again, and after 28 years in the business, I have to smile. When the market takes a downturn, people say “we will never see the prices that we saw before,” and when the market is sizzling, they say “better buy now–prices will never be lower!” We all know that what goes up also goes down; what we sometimes forget is that the market tends to go up much longer and higher. This past increase was an unprecedented thirteen year rise. I’m willing to bet that our downturn will be inside of eighteen months.
When I started selling real estate in 1981, the average price reported by the Toronto Real Estate Board was $77,000. Too bad we didn’t all buy ten houses then!
Sandra Pate is a Broker with Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd./JOHNSTON & DANIEL DIVISION. Sandra’s website is located at www.postcardhomes.com.



