Muddy York: Toronto Real Estate Blog

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Buyers can expect more choice in the Canadian housing market

July 26, 2010 · Leave a Comment

One of Canada’s leading real estate brokers, Royal LePage Real Estate Services, says that buyers will have more choice in the coming months while housing prices cool off towards the end of 2010.

Royal LePage released it’s housing survey for the second half of 2010 and says sellers may expect less offers when they list their homes.

“We have seen an unusual pattern of activity in the housing market over the past 12 months, with the market experiencing a surge of activity and price increases that peaked in the fall of 2009 rather than spring.  Early 2010 has followed a more typical seasonal pattern with prices and activity peaking in the second quarter,” said president of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Phil Soper in a press release. “An expected increase in the supply of homes on the market will now bring stabilization in prices and in some cities we will see both prices and unit sales decline towards the end of the year. This should not be interpreted as a severe correction but rather a natural reaction to the market having peaked quite early this year.”

The next 18 months are predicted to be more stable. By the end of 2010, home prices are also predicted to rise about 6.8 per cent from the same time later year. The number of home sales is expected to increase just one per cent.

The heated market earlier this year was attributed to all of the different industry and regulatory changes, as well as rising impending interest rates, the new mortgage rules and the HST.

“Anecdotal evidence suggests that these factors may have prompted an increase in housing market activity in early 2010, as people sought to get out ahead of the changes,” he said. “Moving into the next six months, key economic indicators such as employment growth will continue to bolster consumer confidence and help to ensure a fundamentally healthy housing market. Home prices will remain flat or decline slightly in most cities, but will be more likely to hold their value or increase in energy-producing economies such as Alberta.”

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Canadian Economy Growing Rapidly

June 25, 2010 · Leave a Comment

Canada’s economy is growing at its fastest in a decade, according to a Royal Bank of Canada economics report.

“Canada’s economy continued to surge ahead as domestic demand was backed by increases in consumer, housing and government spending,” said senior vice president and chief economist at RBC, Craig Wright. “Looking ahead, positive signs in the job market indicate that the recovery will continue in the near term, as private investment increases following a sharp decline during the recession and core inflation remains on target,” he said.

Unemployment rates in Canada are expected to top off at 8.0 per cent for the rest of 2010, down from a previous outlook of 8.4 per cent and 2011 will see a predicted unemployment rate of 7.3 per cent, down from a previous outlook of 7.7 per cent.

Canada’s GDP will not grow as high, as the previous outlook had it pegged at 3.9 per cent while now it’s expected to rise to only 3.5 per cent.

Economic growth in the province of Ontario is expected to reach 3.5 per cent, while Saskatchewan is predicted to have the highest rate of growth at 4.4 per cent.

“Stronger than expected economic data and higher inflation have reduced the need for emergency low interest rates, although uncertainly arising from the European debt crisis adds an element of caution to further rate increases,” said the report.

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Is the Toronto Real Estate Market Changing?

June 15, 2010 · Leave a Comment

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Toronto Neighbourhoods Spring Real Estate Report

June 7, 2010 · 1 Comment

By David Dunkelman

The following is a look at the sale of resale homes and condominiums across Toronto. (Stats are based on sales in January and February 2010.)

The midtown neighbourhoods along Bloor Street, including The Annex, Seaton Village, Christie Pits, Bickford Park, Dovercourt Park, Casa Loma, South Hill, Rathnelly, and Yorkville, had 24 combined sales in the $400,000–$600,000 range. Multiple bids with sales over asking were prevalent at the lower end of this price scale. Annother 26 sales took place in the $600,000–$1 million price range and 22 houses sold for over $1 million with the high price just under $3 million.

In the central core neighbourhoods along St. Clair Avenue west of Yonge Street, including Hillcrest, Humewood, Cedarvale, Chaplin Estates, Deer Park, Regal Heights and Forest Hill, there were 13 sales between $400,000 and $600,000. Most of these houses sold for a little bit over their asking price. There were also 17 sales between $600,000 and $1 million with many of these selling for over asking. These neighbourhoods saw 22 sales over $1 million with most of these in Forest Hill and Deer Park. Six of these sales were over $2 million with the high price just under $4 million.

The exclusive midtown neighbourhoods east of Yonge Street, including Summerhill, Rosedale, Moore Park and Governors Bridge, saw just one sale under $600,000 — a reflection of the higher cost of homes in these areas. There were eight sales between $600,000 and $1 million and 24 more sales over $1 million. Eleven of these houses sold for over $2 million with one sale topping the $6 million mark.

In the central neighbourhoods west of Yonge Street — Bedford Park, Allenby, Lytton Park, Lawrence Manor, Ledbury Park, Armour Heights, and Cricket Club — there were 77 sales under $1 million. Many of these houses sold  for over asking. It seems buyers were more than happy to compete for the 62 houses that sold in the $1 million-plus price range with many of these going over asking. Five of these sold for over $2 million.

The central neighbourhoods east of Yonge Street — North Toronto, Teddington Park, Wanless Park and Davisville Village — saw a scarcity of listings to start the year with just 45 sales under $1 million. Pent-up demand and short supply led to most of these houses selling for well over their asking prices. Seventeen houses cracked the $2 million mark.

In Leaside, where there is a broad range of house values, 27 houses sold for under $1 million, most of them over asking. Four more houses sold for over $1 million. Further north in York Mills, Hoggs Hollow, Bridle Path, and Windfields listings and sales were scarce, with just 10 sales under $1 million. But, the bulk of the activity in these affluent neighbourhoods was in the $1 million-plus price range, where 37 houses changed hands. An amazing 14 houses sold for over $2 million, with the highest sale price in excess of $12 million.

In the North York neighbourhoods west of Yonge Street, including Lansing, Dublin Heights and parts of Willowdale and Newtonbrook, there were 33 sales under $1 million with most houses selling for a little above or below asking. Just eight houses topped $1 million.

In North York east of Yonge Street in the Willowdale and Newtonbrook neighbourhoods approximately 50 houses found buyers in various price ranges under $1 million, while an additional 16 houses sold for over $1 million. In Don Mills 32 sales were recorded, all except for one below $1 million. Houses selling for over asking were more common here than in the past as buyers have begun to take notice of the excellent value in this neighbourhood that has premium lots and nice amenities.

In the east end the real estate market was very active as is usually the case. This heated market saw many houses sell for over asking. Just one house topped the $1 million dollar mark. In always-popular Riverdale, Riverside and Leslieville, first-time buyers continued competing for homes, resulting in 84 sales. Multiple offers were most prevalent in the $400,000-$500,000 range. Only one sale surpassed $1 million.

In The Beach, 91 houses sold for under $1 million. There was a fairly equal distribution of sales in all price ranges, with a large number of houses selling for more than the asking price. Eleven sales were recorded over $1 million.

In the East York neighbourhoods of Old East York, Parkview Hills, Woodbine Gardens, Todmorden Village and Topham Park there were 91 sales under the $1 million dollar mark. Homes over $500,000 seemed to be attracting more than their fair share of sales over asking, as first-time buyers rushed to place bids on homes that are still affordable by Toronto standards. A further three houses sold for over $1 million. These were situated in an exclusive enclave north of the Danforth.

In the always-popular west end, finding affordable homes has become a challenge. In Brockton Village, Parkdale, Roncesvalles Village and Swansea, there were 40 sales under $1 million. Multiple offers were more prevalent here than in the last quarter reported. Six houses topped $1 million and there were over-asking sales in this price range as well.

In Bloor West Village, West Toronto Junction and Runnymede, activity was brisk as first-time buyers rushed to buy homes in these popular family neighbourhoods. Seventy-nine sales were recorded under $1 million, with an even distribution of sales in all price ranges. Just two houses cracked the $1-million mark. Multiple offer activity was prevalent in all price ranges.

In the south Etobicoke neighbourhoods of The Queensway, Sunnylea and Humber Bay, a total of 58 houses were sold under $1 million. Competition for houses was most intense in the $600,000-$800,000 price range. Three houses sold for over $1 million. The north Etobicoke neighbourhoods of Kingsway Park, West Deane Park, Islington Village, Princess Anne Manor and Gardens and Humber Valley Village recorded an impressive 62 sales under $1 million. Bids over asking were most prevalent under $600,000.  An even impressive 34 houses sold for over $1 million. Four of these were in excess of $2 million.

Boutique mid-rise condo buildings in midtown and north Toronto neighbourhoods were very brisk with the $600,000-$700,000 price range proving to be very competitive with buyers outnumbering sellers.

Now for a snapshot of the Toronto condo market. There were literally hundreds of sales in the entry-level market under $500,000 with a large number of these concentrated in the Downtown West and Downtown East neighbourhoods, as well as Harbourfront, Liberty Village, St. Lawrence Market and Fort York. Competition for these affordable units was fierce with the majority of condos listed under $400,000 selling for over asking.

Sales in boutique mid-rise condo buildings in midtown and north Toronto neighbourhoods were very brisk with the $600,000-$700,000 price range proving to be very competitive with buyers outnumbering sellers. There wer approximately 100 condo sales under $1 million in North York but with far fewer sales over asking than in the downtown neighbourhoods. Hundreds of condo units changed hands in the east and west ends where there are a number of older apartment buildings with affordable units. Buyers were abundant but cautious with most of these sales near but not above asking.  The high-end condo market saw 22 units sell for above $1 million in Toronto, with the highest sale over $4.5 million recorded in Rosedale. Once again a large number of condos that sold for over $1 million were primarily in upscale Yorkville.

David Dunkelman is a Broker and ABR* with Royal Lepage R.E.S.Ltd/Johnston and Daniel Division.  David is also the Author of “Your Guide to Toronto Neighbourhoods”. *ABR* The Accredited Buyer Representative (ABR®) designation is the benchmark of excellence in buyer representation. This coveted designation is awarded to real estate practitioners by the Real Estate BUYER’S AGENT Council (REBAC) of the National Association of REALTORS® who meet the specified educational and practical experience criteria.

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Canadian home sales drop slightly in April

May 26, 2010 · Leave a Comment

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, just over 50,000 Canadian homes changed hands in April, which was a drop of 6.8 per cent when compared to the market high of December last year. Sales of existing homes in April also dropped 2.6 per cent from March of this year.

However, the number of new listings were record-breaking, as almost 100,000 new homes were listed in April.

The Toronto market is still reporting record sales, having broken the record for the month of April, with last month’s sales up 34 per cent over April of last year.  Across Canada, new listings are increasing and the nation only just missed the record for April in sales by one per cent.

Nationally, the average sale price of a home increased by 12.2 per cent over April of 2009, which is a bit of a smaller increase than has been seen in the past few months.

CREA says that the hot resale housing market is just beginning to cool, especially in areas like British Columbia. However, Ontario is still at record levels for sales activity.

“Next month will mark the passage of one year since the national average price rebounded from the recessionary trough to return to the pre-recession peak, so the rise in the national average price is expected to be subdued next month,” said CREA Chief economist Gregory Klump in a press release. “The national average price could potentially be skewed higher over the next couple of months if buyers of higher-priced homes in Ontario and British Columbia move their purchase decision forward to beat the introduction of the HST in July.”

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Ever wondered about the investment potential of other canadian cities?

April 29, 2010 · 1 Comment

By Val Logaridis

As Torontonians, we are all very well aware of the rollercoaster ride that Toronto Real Estate has undergone since the Downturn in the Fall of 2008 to the Giddy Heights of Spring 2010.  But, do you have any idea how our real estate market compared to other Canadian cities over the same period of time?

Under each graph is a list of the other Canadian cities that performed in the same manner as the cities sited in the graphs.  Many Canadians have already reaped the benefits of diversifying their real estate investments. This might be something that you would like to consider.

Val Logaridis is a Sales Representative with Royal LePage R.E.S. Ltd, Johnston & Daniel Division. Val is a regular blogger with Muddy York.

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RBC: Bank of Canada upgrades forecasts; opens door to June rate hike by removing conditional commitment

April 22, 2010 · Leave a Comment

The Bank of Canada left the overnight rate at 0.25% Tuesday morning and opened the door to rate increase at the June meeting by removing its conditional commitment to keep the policy rate at its current level, “until the end of the second quarter of 2010.” The Bank stated that with, “recent improvements in the economic outlook, the need for such extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus. The extent and timing will depend on the outlook for economic activity and inflation, and will be consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target.”

The change in the Bank’s statement reflected a sharp upgrade to the Bank’s economic forecast with growth in 2010 forecasted at 3.7%, up from 2.9% in its January projection. The 2011 growth forecast was revised lower to 3.1% from the 3.5% growth rate in their January outlook. The Bank added its 2012 forecast for the economy to expand by 1.9%, which we assume is its estimate of the economy’s potential. As a result of the faster pace of growth in the near term, the Bank expects that the economy will reach its productive capacity and inflation to the 2% target in the middle of 2011, sooner than was thought in January. The Bank failed to provide an overall assessment of the risks to the outlook based on macro considerations, which is unusual, but it clearly acknowledged that some reduction in the amount of policy stimulus will be required over time. The pace of which will depend on the flow of data. To our mind, the Bank will be cuing the timing of its first rate hike off of upcoming inflation reports looking at m
ovements in the core inflation data which are forecasted to “ease slightly in the second quarter of 2010.”

The upgrades to the 2010 economic forecast were based on recently strong housing market activity and global growth as well as the Bank’s assessment that policy stimulus supported, “more expenditures being brought forward in late 2009 and early 2010.”  The statement also sited uncertainty about the pace of the global recovery combined with the potentially restraining effect of the strengthening in the Canadian dollar and low productivity as downside risks for the economy going forward.

Today’s statement sets up interest rates to start to rise, with the first increase likely to be dictated by movements in the core inflation rate, assuming that the economy continues to show strong growth momentum as we (and the Bank) expect. We forecast that the core inflation (to be released on Friday) will show an easing in the Bank’s core rate to 1.8% as the jump in travel accommodation prices proves transitory and remains below 2% in April, which will ease the pressure for a June rate hike. Today’s statement, however, leaves the door open to the Bank moving rates in June. Today’s rate decision and statement reinforce our view that economic conditions are strong enough that the Bank will increase the overnight rate and there is risk that the first hike comes in June rather than July. Our forecast is that the Bank will raise the policy rate to 1.25% in 2010, and the pace of tightening will accelerate in 2011 as the economy continues to build momentum with the overnight rate finishing the year at 3.5%.

Dawn Desjardins, Assistant Chief Economist, RBC Economics

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Muddy York Update – TREB Market Update – March 2010

April 16, 2010 · Leave a Comment

The Toronto Real Estate Board released the March 2010 statistics for the GTA. The number of sales for the month of March was 10,341 in the GTA compared to 6,171 in March of 2009, representing a 69% increase.

The number of days on the market decreased from 40 in 2009 to 20 in 2010 – a 50% change.

In the Central District of Toronto in March 2010, the average price was $566,447 and the median price was $399,900.  The average percent to list came in at 101%.  The average number of days on the market was 18 days compared to the GTA average of 20 days.

Overall, over $1,053 Million worth of real estate traded in the central core of Toronto during the month of March.

Source:  Toronto Real Estate Board

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Real estate in Canada is too expensive: BMO

April 14, 2010 · Leave a Comment

By Julian Merry

A recent survey for BMO of current and potential Canadian homeowners found that many potential and current homeowners are concerned about real estate prices and are changing where they get their mortgages from.

The survey was conducted in February and polled 1,000 Canadians ages 25 to 45 that were planning to purchase their first home within the next year and those who were already homeowners.

Seventy-one per cent of those surveyed think that homes are too expensive currently, especially in major urban centers. The average home price in February was $335,655, which shows a rise of almost 20 per cent over the past year.

Canadians also said that they think there is much more pressure to buy homes now with the pending changes to mortgage regulations and increasing mortgage rates. Several Canadian banks raised their fixed-rate mortgage rates in early April, the highest of which was up from 5.25 per cent to 5.85 per cent for a five-year term.

The changes in mortgage rules and rising mortgage rates are also driving more Canadian homebuyers to mortgage brokers instead of banks to finance the purchase of their homes. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 42 per cent of buyers between the ages of 25 and 34 have used a mortgage broker in the past year.

Another survey at the end of March conducted by Ipsos-Reid for the Royal Bank of Canada showed that more Canadians were feeling the pressure and wanted to buy their homes before the mortgage rates rise, the new mortgage rules are implemented and before the HST tax is formally introduced in the summer.

Seventy-five per cent of these homeowners said they believed that preparation was the key to handling these changes, with 16 per cent doubling payments to reduce their principal and 18 per cent making lump sum payments. Sixty per cent have also paid off more principal by taking advantage of the lower rates.   Over 30 per cent of those surveyed stated that the pending changes influenced their buying decisions and created a sense of urgency towards purchasing homes.

Julian Merry is a Broker with Royal LePage/Johnston & Daniel Division.  Julian is a regular contributor to the Muddy York Toronto Real Estate Blog.  Julian’s website is located at www.julianmerry.com.

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